Valuation Jumps, Option Strike Doesn't: Three Checks

A new mark changes the reference, not your strike

You just saw a new valuation headline, and your vested options look richer on paper. The trap is that the headline changes the reference price, not your strike.

Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series G at a $40 billion post-money value, the company value after the new money, with Wellington and Sequoia named as co-leads. That round lifted its valuation 82 percent from $22 billion in May to $40 billion. Its valuation marks moved from $2 billion in June 2025 to $5 billion in October, $11 billion in December, $22 billion in May, and $40 billion in the newest round.

The business numbers explain the jump. Kalshi's annualized revenue exceeded $4 billion in August, after being above $1.5 billion at Series F. The CFTC, a U.S. regulator, approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetuals on May 29, making it the first such approval in the United States. During September, roughly 500 entities used Kalshi, and non-market-maker entities made up roughly 25% of total exchange trading volume. Kalshi's overall business annualized trading volume exceeded $1 trillion. Those numbers raise the company's reference value, but they do not change the strike on your grant.

For an employee, the useful shift is the spread. A later priced financing generally raises the 409A-based common-stock value, the company's fair-market-value reference for employee stock, while your original strike price remains unchanged. Your paper value is the distance between that common value and your strike. Your grant was priced when the company was smaller. A new round rewrites the reference used to value old grants, not the grants themselves.

The 409A floor moves before the next grant

A startup's 409A valuation sets the exercise price for future option grants to employees, advisors, and contractors. Federal law requires incentive stock options (ISOs) and nonqualified stock options (NSOs) to be priced no lower than the common stock's fair market value on the grant date, making the 409A the floor for new grants.

A 409A appraisal must be updated at least once every 12 months and earlier when a material event such as a new funding round occurs, so a new funding round can prompt a new common-stock fair market value. If the company has not refreshed the 409A, the old common value may still be the number used for new grants.

Post-round 409A common-stock values are often only 20-40% of the latest preferred price, meaning the employee reference value can sit well below the investor round price. The round price is not the number that prices your options. If you hold incentive stock options and plan to exercise, the alternative minimum tax (AMT) spread is normally measured against the latest board-adopted 409A value, so a higher 409A raises the reference value used to compare the strike.

Three checks tell you where your value sits

Keep this list for the next round. It covers your paper value, the 409A floor for future grants, and the IPO float starting price.

• Ask for the latest 409A common-stock price and compare it with your strike.
• Check whether the company has refreshed its 409A after the round.
• Ask what common price the company expects to use for the IPO float.

Check one keeps you from celebrating a preferred price that never became your common reference; check two tells you whether the company has done the legal work that changes future grants; check three matters most if the company is close to a pre-IPO round, because at the offering the price will start from a new common reference, not from the strike you negotiated long ago.

If the company cannot answer the third question, treat the float as unknown and ask for the answer in writing. The public price will set the number you can actually sell into.